They bankrolled the shipyard and called it private investment. I know the sentence. It is what a government and a contractor say together, in matching hard hats, when the public is paying for the tax holiday, the training center, a stake in the yard and the customer, and the press release still needs a hero who isn’t the public.
On Tuesday, October 6, 2026, the State of Maryland and Baltimore County announced what they called a $3.7 billion “private capital investment” by Anduril Industries in Arsenal-2, a two-million-square-foot “software-defined shipyard” at Tradepoint Atlantic, inside the old Sparrows Point complex, to expand the submarine industrial base. The release says the yard is expected to support more than 14,000 jobs, including more than 3,100 new permanent ones, with more than $2 billion in annual economic output and an estimated $312 million a year in wages, and calls it the largest single private investment in Maryland in over a decade. A few paragraphs down: the state and county “have made commitments to match up to 13% of the total anticipated private investment” through existing incentive programs and new appropriations that still need the General Assembly and the County Council. The Baltimore Sun’s Brian Carlton puts that at roughly $481 million and reports the county’s share includes a manufacturing personal property tax credit worth up to $210 million over 30 years — a 100% abatement of qualifying personal property taxes — with the bill introduced Monday and a first potential council vote on November 2. The state adds capital support for a workforce training center at a site to be determined. Spectrum News’ Susan Carpenter reports the project also comes with a $2.9 billion investment from the U.S. Navy; that President Trump said at Sparrows Point that American taxpayers will receive a 40% stake in the yard; and that the Senate’s version of the defense authorization bill capped government equity at 40% so the Defense Department wouldn’t completely nationalize contractors like Anduril. The same day, Anduril said the Army had awarded it a contract worth up to $1.8 billion over five years. The yard will start with components such as torpedo tubes, then modules, then “super modules” for Virginia-class submarines, Anduril president Christian Brose told reporters; Maryland Matters reports it is expected to open in 2030. The Sun notes the job figures “describe anticipated benefits, rather than employment or spending already delivered,” and cites a 2024 Journal of Regional Science study of 44 large publicly subsidized projects that found many employment effects statistically indistinguishable from zero, and larger subsidies not reliably producing larger benefits. Then came the ribbon. Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, told reporters the White House kept him from speaking once the president announced he would come: “if the president of the United States wants to bring the circus into town and tell me that I’m not allowed to speak despite the fact that we were the ones that helped bring the deal, then I will let the circus be conducted while I go back to work for the people of Maryland,” Maryland Matters reports. The White House said Moore was invited as a guest and accused him of “throwing a tantrum over a federal initiative.” The president, CBS Baltimore reports, had looked at the site from the air: “I said that’s a nice piece of real estate, and it’s big.” He danced to “YMCA” on the way out.
Buck watched the clip twice and said that in thirty years of poker he has never seen two men fight that hard over who gets to push in somebody else’s chips. Joey wants to build a model submarine for the front window and has already been told by Deb that it may not be foam core. I love them. They are seasoning.
Private investment is the alibi. The public is the investor. Count it the way the release won’t. The state and county match up to 13%. The county forgives the personal property tax for 30 years, a kindness my own county has never once extended to a homeowner. The state builds the training center. The Navy brings $2.9 billion. The Pentagon is the customer for the submarines, the Army just signed for up to $1.8 billion more, and the president says the taxpayer will own 40% of the yard. At some point “private” is just the name of the account the profits land in. That is the handshake with its sleeves rolled up: public money from every direction, a private name on the door. And look at what the two parties actually fought about on Tuesday. Not the $481 million. Not the 30 years. Not whether a weapons contractor should be the biggest economic-development bet in a decade on old Bethlehem Steel ground, where one private fortune has already risen and fallen. They fought about the microphone. The governor’s office posted its release at 9 a.m. to get there first; the White House kept him off the stage; the CEO thanked him from it anyway. Both parties are the help. One brought the incentive package, one brought the stake, and both brought a camera. I am not crowning the company for “choosing Maryland”; a firm that collects the subsidy, the federal equity, the contract and the customer has not taken a risk, it has been issued a franchise. And I am not pretending the jobs are imaginary. Sparrows Point built ships before, and a welder with a real paycheck in 2030 is not a talking point. But the Sun printed the study: bigger subsidies do not reliably buy bigger benefits. I am keeping the cardigan. Fill the notebook. Then read the County Council bill before November 2 and ask, out loud, who exactly is the private party.
Sources: State of Maryland and Baltimore County release, Oct. 6, 2026; The Baltimore Sun via ArcaMax, Oct. 6, 2026; Spectrum News, Oct. 6, 2026; Maryland Matters, Oct. 7, 2026; CBS Baltimore, Oct. 6, 2026.
— Theo Ashford-Lindström
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